–Oddsmakers Expect a Two-Month Timeline from Nomination to Confirmation–
Kentanji Brown Jackson is the odds-on favorite to be nominated to the United States Supreme Court, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com (See Disclaimer Below). She has 4/7 odds to be named by Joe Biden as Justice Stephen Breyer’s replacement (63.6% implied probability).
“With Joe Biden’s announcement that he will name a woman of color as his Supreme Court nomination, many were quick to name Kentanj Brown Jackson as the most likely pick,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Oddsmakers seem to agree, as her odds are significantly stronger than the other candidates near the top of the list.”
Oddsmakers seem to agree, as her odds are significantly stronger than the other candidates near the top of the list.
US-Bookies
Following Jackson, Leondra Kruger has 9/2 odds to be the Supreme Court nominee (18.2% implied probability). J. Michelle Childs is close behind at 5/1 (16.7%). After Childs, the rest of the field’s odds are much worse, with Wilhelmina “Mimi” Wright coming in at 20/1 (4.8%), and Candace Jackson-Akiwumi at 25/1 (3.8%). Sherrilyn Ifill and Leslie Abrams Gardner are tied with 33/1 odds (2.9%), and Anita Earls and Eunice Lee are tied at 50/1 (2%).
Odds also suggest that upon being nominated, the person will most likely be confirmed to the position within two months. The odds of the nomination-to-confirmation timeline being two months are 6/4 (40% implied probability). The odds of it taking one month are 9/5 (35.7%), and the odds of it taking three months are 5/2 (28.6%).
“While the bookies don’t expect the confirmation process to be as quick as it was for Amy Coney Barrett, the odds do point toward the new nominee’s confirmation taking less time than Neil Gorsuch’s or Brett Kavanaugh’s,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Also, the odds point to Joe Biden sticking with his end-of-February deadline, as the odds of him naming someone by then are 1/3.”
Odds to be Joe Biden’s US Supreme Court Nomination:
Ketanji Brown Jackson: 4/7
Leondra Kruger: 9/2
J. Michelle Childs: 5/1
Wilhelmina “Mimi” Wright: 20/1
Candace Jackson-Akiwumi: 25/1
Sherrilyn Ifill: 33/1
Leslie Abrams Gardner: 33/1
Anita Earls: 50/1
Eunice Lee: 50/1
Timeline from Nomination to Confirmation:
1 month: 9/5
2 months: 6/4
3 months: 5/2
Odds Joe Biden Announces Pick by the End of February:
Yes: 1/3
No: 11/4
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Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.
