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Biden’s Presidential Odds on Downward Path Leading Up to Thursday’s Public Address

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As Republicans Call for Biden’s Resignation, Oddsmakers Say Chances of This Happening Have Improved

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Joe Biden’s odds to resign during his first term have improved from 5/1 (16.7% implied probability) to 3/1 (25%) since last month, according to betting aggregators. His odds to complete his first term have also worsened from 1/7 (87.5%) to 1/5 (83.3%) in the same timeframe. Though the odds aren’t shifting in Biden’s favor, he’s still more likely to remain in office through his first term. 

“Biden is set to address the nation and deliver a key update on the state of the pandemic this Thursday, and this speech comes at a time where his approval ratings are seeing sharp declines and Republicans are increasingly calling for impeachment and resignation,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Along with his resignation odds improving, he and Kamala Harris have seen negative shifts in their odds to win in 2024.” 

Though he’s still the favorite, Biden’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have worsened from 10/3 (23.1% implied probability) to 4/1 (20%) since August 25. Harris’s odds followed a similar pattern, shifting from 7/2 (22.2%) to 5/1 (16.7%). Donald Trump’s odds have remained at 13/2, where he’s the favorite among Republican candidates. He’s followed by Ron DeSantis, who worsened slightly from 10/1 (9.1%) to 11/1. 

“Trump hasn’t officially declared his 2024 bid, but he’s sitting in a good position in betting markets,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “His odds have improved since two months ago, and he is just behind Biden and Harris, who are moving in the wrong direction.” 

Joe Biden to resign during his first term: 3/1 (5/1 one month ago)

Joe Biden to finish his first term: 1/5 (1/7 one month ago)

Odds to Win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

 Current OddsOdds on August 25, 2021Odds Two Months Ago
Joe Biden4/1 (+400)10/3 (+333)4/1 (+400)
Kamala Harris5/1 (+500)7/2 (+350)4/1 (+400)
Donald Trump 13/2 (+650)13/2 (+650)8/1 (+800)
Ron DeSantis11/1 (+1100)10/1 (+1000)10/1 (+1000)
Nikki Haley12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Mike Pence16/1 (+1600)14/1 (+1400)14/1 (+1400)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)
Dwayne Johnson20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Jeff Bezos20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Tucker Carlson25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)

Odds to Win Democratic Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

 Current OddsOdds on August 25, 2021Odds Two Months Ago
Joe Biden3/2 (+150)9/4 (+225)2/1 (+200)
Kamala Harris2/1 (+200)3/2 (+150)2/1 (+200)
Pete Buttigieg12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez20/1 (+2000)22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)
Elizabeth Warren22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)
Rashida TlaibN/A30/1 (+3000)30/1 (+3000)
Ayanna Pressley33/ (+3300)33/1 (+3300)33/1 (+3300)
Michelle Obama40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)
Nina Turner50/1 (+5000)40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)
Meghan Markle50/1 (+5000)50/1 (+5000)50/1 (+5000)
Bernie Sanders66/1 (+6600)N/AN/A

Odds to Win Republican Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

 Current OddsOdds on August 25, 2021Odds Two Months Ago
Donald Trump2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)3/1 (+300)
Ron DeSantis19/5 (+380)9/2 (+450)6/1 (+600)
Nikki Haley6/1 (+600)7/1 (+700)7/1 (+700)
Mike Pence 14/1 (+1400)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Ted Cruz16/1 (+1600)14/1 (+1400)14/1 (+1400)
Mike Pompeo20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Tucker Carlson20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Tom Cotton20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Kristi Noem25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)
Ivanka Trump28/1 (+2800)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)

Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.