As Republicans Call for Biden’s Resignation, Oddsmakers Say Chances of This Happening Have Improved
Joe Biden’s odds to resign during his first term have improved from 5/1 (16.7% implied probability) to 3/1 (25%) since last month, according to betting aggregators. His odds to complete his first term have also worsened from 1/7 (87.5%) to 1/5 (83.3%) in the same timeframe. Though the odds aren’t shifting in Biden’s favor, he’s still more likely to remain in office through his first term.
“Biden is set to address the nation and deliver a key update on the state of the pandemic this Thursday, and this speech comes at a time where his approval ratings are seeing sharp declines and Republicans are increasingly calling for impeachment and resignation,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Along with his resignation odds improving, he and Kamala Harris have seen negative shifts in their odds to win in 2024.”
Though he’s still the favorite, Biden’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have worsened from 10/3 (23.1% implied probability) to 4/1 (20%) since August 25. Harris’s odds followed a similar pattern, shifting from 7/2 (22.2%) to 5/1 (16.7%). Donald Trump’s odds have remained at 13/2, where he’s the favorite among Republican candidates. He’s followed by Ron DeSantis, who worsened slightly from 10/1 (9.1%) to 11/1.
“Trump hasn’t officially declared his 2024 bid, but he’s sitting in a good position in betting markets,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “His odds have improved since two months ago, and he is just behind Biden and Harris, who are moving in the wrong direction.”
Joe Biden to resign during his first term: 3/1 (5/1 one month ago)
Joe Biden to finish his first term: 1/5 (1/7 one month ago)
Odds to Win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
| Current Odds | Odds on August 25, 2021 | Odds Two Months Ago | |
| Joe Biden | 4/1 (+400) | 10/3 (+333) | 4/1 (+400) |
| Kamala Harris | 5/1 (+500) | 7/2 (+350) | 4/1 (+400) |
| Donald Trump | 13/2 (+650) | 13/2 (+650) | 8/1 (+800) |
| Ron DeSantis | 11/1 (+1100) | 10/1 (+1000) | 10/1 (+1000) |
| Nikki Haley | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) |
| Mike Pence | 16/1 (+1600) | 14/1 (+1400) | 14/1 (+1400) |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16/1 (+1600) | 16/1 (+1600) | 16/1 (+1600) |
| Dwayne Johnson | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Jeff Bezos | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Tucker Carlson | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) |
Odds to Win Democratic Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
| Current Odds | Odds on August 25, 2021 | Odds Two Months Ago | |
| Joe Biden | 3/2 (+150) | 9/4 (+225) | 2/1 (+200) |
| Kamala Harris | 2/1 (+200) | 3/2 (+150) | 2/1 (+200) |
| Pete Buttigieg | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 20/1 (+2000) | 22/1 (+2200) | 22/1 (+2200) |
| Elizabeth Warren | 22/1 (+2200) | 22/1 (+2200) | 22/1 (+2200) |
| Rashida Tlaib | N/A | 30/1 (+3000) | 30/1 (+3000) |
| Ayanna Pressley | 33/ (+3300) | 33/1 (+3300) | 33/1 (+3300) |
| Michelle Obama | 40/1 (+4000) | 40/1 (+4000) | 40/1 (+4000) |
| Nina Turner | 50/1 (+5000) | 40/1 (+4000) | 40/1 (+4000) |
| Meghan Markle | 50/1 (+5000) | 50/1 (+5000) | 50/1 (+5000) |
| Bernie Sanders | 66/1 (+6600) | N/A | N/A |
Odds to Win Republican Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
| Current Odds | Odds on August 25, 2021 | Odds Two Months Ago | |
| Donald Trump | 2/1 (+200) | 2/1 (+200) | 3/1 (+300) |
| Ron DeSantis | 19/5 (+380) | 9/2 (+450) | 6/1 (+600) |
| Nikki Haley | 6/1 (+600) | 7/1 (+700) | 7/1 (+700) |
| Mike Pence | 14/1 (+1400) | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) |
| Ted Cruz | 16/1 (+1600) | 14/1 (+1400) | 14/1 (+1400) |
| Mike Pompeo | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Tucker Carlson | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Tom Cotton | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Kristi Noem | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) |
| Ivanka Trump | 28/1 (+2800) | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) |
Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.
