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Harris Overtakes Biden as Favorite to Win 2024 Democratic Nomination

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Biden Still Holds Spot as Favorite to be Re-elected with Harris, Trump Improving

Joe Biden’s odds to be the Democratic Nominee in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have worsened from 2/1 (33.3% implied probability) to 9/4 (30.8%) since Friday, according to betting aggregators. Over the last two months, Kamala Harris improved from 2/1 (33.3%) to 3/2 (40%), making her the new sole favorite. 

In the same timeframe, Donald Trump improved from 3/1 (25% implied probability) to 2/1 (33.3%) to be the Republican nominee. Ron DeSantis also improved from 6/1 (14.3%) to 9/2 (18.2%) during this time. While DeSantis improved in this market, his grip as the favorite to win the 2022 Florida Gubernatorial election is loosening, as his odds worsened from 1/5 (83.3%) to 1/3 (75%) in the past two months. 

“The past two months have marked a difficult time for the Biden administration, and the odds reflect waning confidence in the current president securing his spot as the Democratic nominee, with the VP taking over as the favorite,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “However, Biden remains the favorite to win the 2024 election, suggesting book he may have a better chance than Harris against the Republican ticket.” 

Trump’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have improved from 8/1 (11.1% implied probability) to 13/2 (13.3%) in the last two months. He follows Harris, who improved from 4/1 (20%) to 7/2 (22.2%) and Biden, who improved from 4/1 (20%) to 10/3 (23.1%).

“Though Trump hasn’t officially declared his 2024 bid, it looks increasingly likely that he will be the Republican nominee,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “While it’s significant for an undeclared candidate to be the favorite, his improving odds are likely a result of the current administration’s performance, as they come when Biden’s polling numbers are on the decline.” 

Odds to Win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

Current OddsOdds on August 20, 2021Odds Two Months Ago
Joe Biden10/3 (+333)10/3 (+333)4/1 (+400)
Kamala Harris7/2 (+350)7/2 (+350)4/1 (+400)
Donald Trump 13/2 (+650)13/2 (+650)8/1 (+800)
Ron DeSantis10/1 (+1000)10/1 (+1000)10/1 (+1000)
Nikki Haley12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Mike Pence14/1 (+1400)14/1 (+1400)14/1 (+1400)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)16/1 (+1600)
Dwayne Johnson20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Jeff Bezos20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Tucker Carlson25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)

Odds to Win Democratic Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

Current OddsOdds on August 20, 2021Odds Two Months Ago
Kamala Harris3/2 (+150)3/2 (+150)2/1 (+200)
Joe Biden9/4 (+225)2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)
Pete Buttigieg12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)
Elizabeth Warren22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)22/1 (+2200)
Rashida Tlaib30/1 (+3000)30/1 (+3000)30/1 (+3000)
Ayanna Pressley33/1 (+3300)33/1 (+3300)33/1 (+3300)
Michelle Obama40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)
Nina Turner40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)40/1 (+4000)
Meghan Markle50/1 (+5000)50/1 (+5000)50/1 (+5000)

Odds to Win Republican Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

Current OddsOdds on August 20, 2021Odds Two Months Ago
Donald Trump2/1 (+200)2/1 (+200)3/1 (+300)
Ron DeSantis9/2 (+450)9/2 (+450)6/1 (+600)
Nikki Haley7/1 (+700)7/1 (+700)7/1 (+700)
Mike Pence 12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)12/1 (+1200)
Ted Cruz14/1 (+1400)14/1 (+1400)14/1 (+1400)
Mike Pompeo20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Tucker Carlson20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Tom Cotton20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)20/1 (+2000)
Kristi Noem25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)
Ivanka Trump25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)25/1 (+2500)


Odds to Win 2022 Florida Gubernatorial Election:

Current OddsOdds Two Months Ago
Ron DeSantis1/3 (-300)1/5 (-500)
Charlie Crist4/ 1 (+400)8/1 (+800)
Nikki Fried8/1 (+800)10/1 (+1000)
Val Demings100/1 (+10000)100/1 (+10000)


Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.