–Republicans Have Better Odds Than Democrats to Win Control of House and Senate–
Kamala Harris’ odds to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have improved from 5/1 (16.7% implied probability) to 7/2 (22.2%) since last month, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies (See Disclaimer Below). She has once again overtaken Joe Biden, whose odds remain at 4/1 (20%). Donald Trump follows at 13/2 (13.3%).
Though Harris has the best odds to win the next presidential election, Biden is still the favorite to be the Democratic nominee,
Says a US-Bookies spokesperson.
This suggests that the odds show more confidence in Harris beating the Republican candidate than they do in Biden.
Despite no official 2024 campaign announcement, Trump’s odds to be the Republican nominee have improved from 2/1 (33.3% implied probability) to 3/2 (40%) since last month. His biggest threat in this market, Ron DeSantis, worsened from 19/5 (20.8%) to 5/1 (16.7%) in this time.
Nikki Haley recently said she’d consult Trump before making any 2024 plans. The odds seem to suggest that would be a good idea, as she’s well behind Trump and her odds are trending negatively,
according to a US-Bookies spokesperson.
Since last month, Haley’s odds to be the Republican nominee in 2024 shifted from 6/1 to 7/1.
The odds show that Republicans are more likely to have majority control of Congress. The Republican Party is the 5/6 (54.5% implied probability) favorite to hold majority control of the Senate after midterms, and 2/5 (71.4%) favorites to win control of the House of Representatives. Democrats are 21/10 (32.3%) to win the Senate and 2/1 (33.3%) to win the House.
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While the odds favor Republicans winning control of Congress come midterms, their odds of take the House are stronger than the Senate,
Says a US-Bookies spokesperson.
But with the Republican majority looming, the Biden administration will likely face some challenges in the second half of the term, which could affect 2024 outlook.
Odds to Win Majority Control of the Senate After 2022 Mid Terms:
Republicans: 5/6
Democrats: 21/20
Odds to Win Majority Control of the House of Representatives After 2022 Mid Terms:
Republicans: 2/5
Democrats: 2/1
Odds to Win 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
| Current Odds | Odds on September 8, 2021 | Odds on August 25, 2021 | Odds on July 8, 2021 | |
| Kamala Harris | 7/2 (+350) | 5/1 (+500) | 7/2 (+350) | 4/1 (+400) |
| Joe Biden | 4/1 (+400) | 4/1 (+400) | 10/3 (+333) | 4/1 (+400) |
| Donald Trump | 13/2 (+650) | 13/2 (+650) | 13/2 (+650) | 8/1 (+800) |
| Ron DeSantis | 11/1 (+1100) | 11/1 (+1100) | 10/1 (+1000) | 10/1 (+1000) |
| Nikki Haley | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) |
| Mike Pence | 16/1 (+1600) | 16/1 (+1600) | 14/1 (+1400) | 14/1 (+1400) |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16/1 (+1600) | 16/1 (+1600) | 16/1 (+1600) | 16/1 (+1600) |
| Jeff Bezos | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Dwayne Johnson | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Elise Stefanik | 25/1 (+2500) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tucker Carlson | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) |
| Ivanka Trump | 25/1 (+2500) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Michael Flynn | 28/1 (+2800) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Michelle Obama | 33/1 (+3300) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cory Booker | 33/1 (+3300) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ted Cruz | 33/1 (+3300 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Pete Buttigieg | 40/1 (+4000) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike Pompeo | 40/1 (+4000) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Elizabeth Warren | 40/1 (+4000) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Candace Owens | 40/1 (+4000) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Odds to Win Democratic Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
| Current Odds | Odds on September 8, 2021 | Odds on August 25, 2021 | Odds on July 8, 2021 | |
| Joe Biden | 15/8 (+188) | 3/2 (+150) | 9/4 (+225) | 2/1 (+200) |
| Kamala Harris | 2/1 (+200) | 2/1 (+200) | 3/2 (+150) | 2/1 (+200) |
| Pete Buttigieg | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) |
| Stacey Abrams | 16/1 (+1600) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 22/1 (+2200) | 22/1 (+2200) |
| Elizabeth Warren | 25/1 (+2500) | 22/1 (+2200) | 22/1 (+2200) | 22/1 (+2200) |
| Michelle Obama | 40/1 (+4000) | 40/1 (+4000) | 40/1 (+4000) | 40/1 (+4000) |
| Cory Booker | 25/1 (+2500) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Hillary Clinton | 50/1 (+5000) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Meghan Markle | 50/1 (+5000) | 50/1 (+5000) | 50/1 (+5000) | 50/1 (+5000) |
Odds to Win Republican Nomination 2024 U.S. Presidential Election:
| Current Odds | Odds on September 8, 2021 | Odds on August 25, 2021 | Odds on July 8, 2021 | |
| Donald Trump | 3/2 (+150) | 2/1 (+200) | 2/1 (+200) | 3/1 (+300) |
| Ron DeSantis | 5/1 (+500) | 19/5 (+380) | 9/2 (+450) | 6/1 (+600) |
| Nikki Haley | 7/1 (+700) | 6/1 (+600) | 7/1 (+700) | 7/1 (+700) |
| Mike Pence | 14/1 (+1400) | 14/1 (+1400) | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) |
| Ted Cruz | 16/1 (+1600) | 16/1 (+1600) | 14/1 (+1400) | 14/1 (+1400) |
| Mike Pompeo | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Tucker Carlson | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Tom Cotton | 25/1 (+2500) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) |
| Kristi Noem | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) |
| Ivanka Trump | 25/1 (+2500) | 28/1 (+2800) | 25/1 (+2500) | 25/1 (+2500) |
Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.
