–Both Candidates’ Odds Remain Unchanged Immediately Following Latest Debate–
Phil Murphy’s odds to be re-elected have continued to improve since the first debate, according to betting aggregators a US-Bookies (See Disclaimer Below). Following the debate, Murphy’s odds to win the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election improved from 2/9 (81.8% implied probability) to 1/10 (90.9%). His odds have since further improved to 1/20 (95.2%) before the second official debate, and they have remained the same immediately following.
Meanwhile, Jack Ciattarelli’s odds have worsened since the end of last month. Following the first debate, his odds to win the election shifted from 4/1 (20% implied probability) to 7/1 (12.5%). His odds to win were 12/1 (7.7%) heading into the latest debate, and they have not changed.
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“In the month leading up to the candidates’ first live debate, Ciattarelli was actually closing the gap, but they’ve been trending in Murphy’s favor since that evening,” says a a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Following last night’s debate, both candidates’ odds haven’t moved, and Murphy’s odds are even stronger than they were at the end of August, so he’s likely to become the first Democratic New Jersey Governor to be re-elected since 1977.”
The latest Monmouth University poll listed Murphy with a 51% to 38% lead, a small shift from a 52% to 36% lead in August. However, betting odds no give Murphy a lead of 95.2% to 7.7%, and the lead has continued to widen since the debate.
“Betting odds recently predicted the California recall more accurately than polls, as the odds more strongly predicted a Newsom win,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Given the fact that betting odds are only getting stronger for the incumbent, Ciattarelli will need to build some momentum in the final weeks of the campaign trail.”
Odds to Win 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election:
| Odds After Second Debate (October 13) | Odds Before Second Debate (October 12) | Odds After First Debate (September 29) | Odds Before First Debate (September 28) | Odds from August 29, 2021 | |
| Phil Murphy | 1/20 (-2000) | 1/20 (-2000) | 1/10 (-1000) | 2/9 (-450) | 1/10 (-1000) |
| Jack Ciattarelli | 12/1 (+1200) | 12/1 (+1200) | 7/1 (+700) | 4/1 (+400) | 13/2 (+650) |
Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not
currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide
operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.
