–McAuliffe’s Odds Improve Again as Youngkin’s Worsen–
Terry McAuliffe’s lead in Virginia Gubernatorial Election has strengthened since last week, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies (See Disclaimer Below). His odds to win the election have improved from to 2/5 (71.4% implied probability) to 2/7 (77.8%) since October 12. Glenn Youngkin’s have worsened from 2/1 (33.3%) to 11/4 (26.7%) in the same timeframe.
“Both Candidates odds have been fluctuating in recent weeks, but McAuliffe has held a solid lead during this time,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “And with his odds improving once again, this should bring good news for the Democratic candidate.”
The days following the second debate saw slight shifts for both candidates, Youngkin’s odds worsening from 3/1 (25% implied probability) to 16/5 (23.8%) and McAuliffe improving from 3/10 (76.9%) to 2/7 (77.8%). Soon after, both candidates’ odds shifted in the opposite directions, with McAuliffe worsening to 2/5 (71.4%) and Youngkin improving to 2/1 (33.3%). However, Youngkin’s odds have worsened once again to 11/4 (26.7%) while McAuliffe improved back to 2/7 (77.8%).
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“Betting odds recently predicted the California governor recall more accurately than the polls, showing Gavin Newsom as more likely to survive the effort than what polling data indicated,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “At this point, betting odds are still more confident in a McAuliffe win than the polls are showing, but the odds also point to that gap closing up.”
Recent polls suggest McAuliffe holds a lead of 49.5% to 47.3% over Youngkin, with that lead shortening over the past few weeks. However, betting odds show that McAuliffe has a much stronger 77.8% to 26.7% lead that has improved since last week.
Odds to Win 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Election:
| Odds on October 19, 2021 | Odds on October 12, 2021 | Odds on October 4, 2021 | Odds on September 29, 2021 | |
| Terry McAuliffe | 2/7 (-350) | 2/5 (-250) | 2/7 (-350) | 3/10 (-333) |
| Glenn Youngkin | 11/4 (+275) | 2/1 (+200) | 16/5 (+320) | 3/1 (+300) |
Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only, as wagering on such props is not currently legal in any U.S. state. The data was based on betting markets offered by UK/European/worldwide operators regulated in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.
